Year End Market Insights

The 5-week average supply and demand from 2019 through October 2021 show the difference between a “normal” market in 2019 (2-4 month’s supply of inventory) and the sustained increase in demand against the lack of supply since the beginning of the pandemic.

While you still observe a seasonal pattern, you do not see supply catching up with demand.  Each time supply rises demand meets the increase.

We can now forecast inventory through the remainder of the year based on historical patterns.  You will notice, supply is again not projected to exceed demand by the years end.  The forecast isn’t what we had hoped for with no significant building of inventory to meet demand in the early part of 2022.

When comparing 43 weeks of activity to the prior year you will notice only marginal weekly differences largely centered around the first COVID lockdowns in early March:

Takeaways heading to year-end:

  • No expectation of increased inventory at the beginning of 2022 – possibly more acute than 2021
  • Demand not subsiding; demographics will keep it strong throughout 2022
  • The erosion of purchasing power due to rising rates could produce pressure on prices in the short term outside of the influence of inventory (I do not believe rates will remain elevated in the long-term)
  • Prices above asking remain elevated over PYTD despite the slowing pace of appreciation
  • No expectation of a market-wide decline in value in the coming year